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Assessing the adaptive capacity of Agriculture in the Netherlands to the impacts of climate change under different market and policy scenarios

Title: AgriAdapt-NL (Assessing the adaptive capacity of Agriculture in the Netherlands to the impacts of climate change under different market and policy scenarios)  
Abstract: The role of adaptation in agriculture to moderate impacts of climate change is increasingly recognised. There is an apparent need for a methodology to assess impacts of climate change on agriculture at the regional and farm type level considering changes in socio-economic and market conditions. It is required to conceptually and technically link biophysical models that enable estimation of climate impacts on e.g. crop yields and land use and associated environmental impacts (e.g. nitrogen leaching, soil carbon content or water use) with farming system and market models. Despite the significant progress that has been made in recent years on climate change impact and sustainability assessment, key issues of assessing responses and adaptation at farming system and regional level using a coherent modelling framework remain unresolved.
Key objective of the project is the development of a methodology to assess climate change impacts on agriculture including adaptation at regional and farm type level in combination with market changes. The developed methodology should be of interest to applied scientists dealing with climate change impacts and adaptation at the regional level. Potential users of the results obtained from applying this methodology will include national and regional policy makers and stakeholders in the region.
The methodology should enable:
–    the assessment of impacts, risks and resiliencies for agriculture under changes in climatic conditions including increasing climate variability
–    the evaluation of adaptation strategies at farm type and regional scale

Person in charge: Frank Ewert
Runtime: 2009 - 2011
Funding: BSIK Programme on Climate Change and Spatial Planning,

Cooperating partner: WUR PPS, Alterra, LEI, PRI, Crop and Weed Ecology (CWE), MTT Agrifood Research Finland (Mikkeli)
Publications: Wolf, J., P. Reidsma, B. Schaap, M. Mandryk, A. Kanellopoulos, F. Ewert, P. van Oort, C. Angulo, C. Rumbaur, R. Lock, A. Enders, M. Adenauer, T. Heckelei, R. Rötter, S. Fronzek, T.R. Carter, A. Verhagen, M.K. van Ittersum, 2012. Assessing the adaptive capacity of agriculture in the Netherlands to the impacts of climate change under different market and policy scenarios. AgriAdapt project, Synthesis report, Wageningen UR, University of Bonn, MTT, Finnish Environment Institute, KvR report nr. 059/12, ISBN/EAN 978-90-8815-051-7.

Hermans, C.M.L., I.R. Geijzendorffer, F. Ewert, M.J. Metzger, P.H. Vereijken, G.  Woltjer and  A. Verhagen, 2010. Exploring the future of European crop production in a liberalised market, with specific consideration of climate change and the regional competitiveness. Ecological Modelling 221, 2177-2187. DOI:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.03.021.

Smit, H.J., M.J. Metzger, F. Ewert, 2008. Spatial distribution of grassland productivity and land use in Europe. Agricultural Systems 98, 208-219.

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