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Multiscale modelling of extreme events

Spatial modelling of the impacts of climate change and climate variability on winter wheat in Germany - effects of heat- and drought stress under elevated CO2 concentration

Title: Spatial modelling of the impacts of climate change and climate variability on winter wheat in Germany - effects of heat- and drought stress under elevated CO2 concentration

Abstract: Large scale crop modelling is increasingly used in regional assessments of the climate change impacts on crop yields, but the models applied were originally developed for application at the smaller field level. Systematic analyses of uncertainties caused by the application of relationships and processes relevant at the field level in large scale modelling of crop yields are still missing. Such analyses are particularly important for the impacts of heat and drought on crop growth and yield because of the high spatial and temporal variability of these stressors.

The aim of this project will be a systematic analysis of different methods of upscaling crop models for the assessments of climate change impacts on crop yields at the regional scale. It will be investigated to which extent the consideration of more detailed physiological processes in regional crop growth models results in improved and more precise estimates of the impact of heat and drought on winter wheat yields under elevated CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. The focus will be on the suitability of integrated multi-scale models, which will be developed in the project in collaboration with project partners at the Universities of Kiel and Halle and at the von-Thünen-Institute Braunschweig.

 

Integrated_multiscale_models 

  Navin Ramankutty, McGill University, Montreal, Canada Stefan Siebert, University of Bonn, Germany Noah Diffenbaugh, Stanford University, United States Andrew Nelson, IRRI, Manila, Philippines Glenn Hyman, CIAT, Palmira, Colombia Stanley Wood, IFPRI, Washington, United States Thomas Hertel and Nelson Villoria, Purdue University, United States

Person in charge:

Prof. Dr. Frank Ewert,
PD Dr. Stefan Siebert,
Dr. Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei

Runtime: 2012-2017

Funding: German Research Foundation (DFG)

Cooperating partners: Von-Thünen-Institute Braunschweig, Institute of Biodiversity
Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Institute of Agricultural and Nutritional Sciences
Christian-Albrechts-University Kiel, Institute of Crop Science and Plant Breeding

Publications:

Eyshi Rezaei, E., S. Siebert, F. Ewert, 2017. Climate and management interaction cause diverse crop phenology trends. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 233, 55-70. DOI:10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.11.003.

Webber, H., P. Martre, S. Asseng, B. Kimball, J. White, M. Ottman, G.W. Wall., G. De Sanctis, J. Doltra, R. Grant, B. Kassie, A. Maiorano, J.E. Olesen, D. Ripoche, E. Eyshi Rezaei, M.A. Semenov, P. Stratonovitch, F. Ewert, 2017. Canopy temperature for simulation of heat stress in irrigated wheat in a semi-arid environment: A multi-model comparison. Field Crops Research 202, 21-35. DOI:10.1016/j.fcr.2015.10.009.

Gabaldón-Leal, C., H. Webber, M.E. Otegui, G.A. Slafer, R.A. Ordóñez, T. Gaiser, I.J. Lorite, M. Ruiz-Ramos, F. Ewert, 2016. Modelling the impact of heat stress on maize yield formation. Field Crops Research 198, 226-237. DOI:10.1016/j.fcr.2016.08.013.

Hoffmann, H., G. Zhao, S. Asseng, M. Bindi, C. Biernath, J. Constantin, E. Coucheney, R. Dechow, L. Doro, H. Eckersten, T. Gaiser, B. Grosz, F. Heinlein, B.T. Kassie, K.-C. Kersebaum, C. Klein, M. Kuhnert, E. Lewan, M. Moriondo, C. Nendel, E. Priesack, H. Raynal, P.P. Roggero, R.P. Rötter, S. Siebert, X. Specka, F. Tao, E. Teixeira, G. Trombi, D. Wallach, L. Weihermüller, J. Yeluripati, F. Ewert, 2016. Impact of spatial soil and climate input data aggregation on regional yield simulations. PLoS One 11, e0151782. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0151782.

Van Bussel, L.G.J., F. Ewert, G. Zhao, H. Hoffmann, A. Enders, D. Wallach, S. Asseng, G.A. Baigorria, B. Basso, C. Biernath, D. Cammarano, J. Chryssanthacopoulos, J. Constantin, J. Elliott, M. Glotter, F. Heinlein, K.-C. Kersebaum, C. Klein, C. Nendel, E. Priesack, H. Raynal, C.C. Romero, R.P. Rötter, X. Specka, F. Tao, 2016. Spatial sampling of weather data for regional crop yield simulations. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 220, 101-115. DOI:10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.01.014.

Webber, H., F. Ewert, B.A. Kimball, S. Siebert, J.W. White, G.W. Wall, M.J. Ottman, D.N.A. Trawally, T. Gaiser, 2016. Simulating canopy temperature for modelling heat stress in cereals. Environmental Modelling & Software 77, 143-155. DOI:10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.12.003

Asseng, S., F. Ewert, P. Martre, R.P. Rotter, D.B. Lobell, D. Cammarano, B.A. Kimball, M.J. Ottman, G.W. Wall, J.W. White, M.P. Reynolds, P.D. Alderman, P.V.V. Prasad, P.K. Aggarwal, J. Anothai, B. Basso, C. Biernath, A.J. Challinor, G. De Sanctis, J. Doltra, E. Fereres, M. Garcia-Vila, S. Gayler, G. Hoogenboom, L.A. Hunt, R.C. Izaurralde, M. Jabloun, C.D. Jones, K.C. Kersebaum, A.K. Koehler, C. Muller, S. Naresh Kumar, C. Nendel, G. O/'Leary, J.E. Olesen, T. Palosuo, E. Priesack, E. Eyshi Rezaei, A.C. Ruane, M.A. Semenov, I. Shcherbak, C. Stockle, P. Stratonovitch, T. Streck, I. Supit, F. Tao, P.J. Thorburn, K. Waha, E. Wang, D. Wallach, J. Wolf, Z. Zhao, Y. Zhu, 2015. Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production. Nature Climate Change 5, 143-147. DOI:10.1038/nclimate2470.

Eyshi Rezaei, E., S. Siebert, F. Ewert, 2015. Intensity of heat stress in winter wheat—phenology compensates for the adverse effect of global warming. Environmental Research Letters 10, 024012. DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/10/2/024012.

Eyshi Rezaei, E., S. Siebert, F. Ewert, 2015. Impact of data resolution on heat and drought stress simulated for winter wheat in Germany. European Journal of Agronomy 65, 69-82. DOI:10.1016/j.eja.2015.02.003.

Eyshi Rezaei, E., H. Webber, T. Gaiser, J. Naab, F. Ewert, 2015. Heat stress in cereals: mechanisms and modeling. European Journal of Agronomy 64, 98-113. DOI:10.1016/j.eja.2014.10.003.

Zhao, G., S. Siebert, A. Enders, E. Eyshi Rezaei, C. Yan, F. Ewert, 2015. Demand for multi-scale weather data for regional crop modeling. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 200, 156-171, DOI:10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.09.026.

Siebert, S., F. Ewert, E. Eyshi Rezaei, H. Kage, R. Graß, 2014. Impact of heat stress on crop yield—on the importance of considering canopy temperature. Environmental Research Letters 9, 044012. DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/044012.


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