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MACSUR

FACCE JPI Knowledge Hub „Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security” (MACSUR)

Titel: Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security (MACSUR)
Kurzfassung: Im MACSUR FACCE JPI Knowledge Hub werden die Modellierung der europäischen Landwirtschaft unter dem Einfluss des Klimawandels und mögliche Folgen für die weltweite Ernährungssicherheit verbessert und entsprechende Forschungskapazitäten weiterentwickelt. Die Entwicklung, Verwendung und Interpretation von Modellen zur Risikobewertung der Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die europäische Landwirtschaft liegt schwerpunktmäßig in den Bereichen Pflanze, Tier und Ökonomie sowie deren Integration. Die Modellierungsaktivitäten in den drei Unterthemen sowie die Entwicklung integrierter Modellansätze für einzelne ausgewählte europäische Regionen in Pilotstudien bilden die Grundlage für die Formulierung einer Forschungsstrategie für eine europaweite Analyse der Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die europäische Landwirtschaft und die Ernährungssicherheit.

Der Beitrag der Professur Pflanzenbau umfasst die Koordination des Themas CropM, die Mitarbeit bei der Koordination des Gesamtprojekts sowie Beiträge zu (bzw. Leitung von) verschiedenen Arbeitspaketen in CropM zu Skalierungsmethoden, Modellvergleichen und Unsicherheitsanalysen.

Bearbeiter:

Prof. Dr. Frank Ewert,
Dr. Ganga Ram Maharjan,
Dr. Heidi Webber,
Katharina Brüser

Laufzeit: 01.07.2012 – 30.06.2017

Förderung: BMELV / BMBF

Kooperations-partner : 38 Partner in 16 europäischen Ländern (nur CropM)


Veröffentlichungen:

Maiorano, A., P. Martre, S. Asseng, F. Ewert, C. Müller, R.P. Rötter, A.C. Ruane, M.A. Semenov, D. Wallach, E. Wang, P.D. Alderman, B.T.Kassie, C. Biernath, B. Basso, D. Cammarano, A.J. Challinor, J. Doltra, B. Dumont, E. Eyshi Rezaei, S. Gayler, K.C. Kersebaum, B.A. Kimball, A.K. Koehler, B. Liu, G.J. O’Leary, J.E. Olesen, M.J. Ottman, E. Priesack, M. Reynolds, P. Stratonovitch, T. Streck, P. J. Thorburn, K. Waha, G.W. Wall, J.W. White, Z. Zhao, Y. Zhu, 2017. Crop model improvement reduces the uncertainty of the response to temperature of multi-model ensembles. Field Crops Research 202, 5-20. DOI:10.1016/j.fcr.2016.05.001.

Webber, H., P. Martre, S. Asseng, B. Kimball, J. White, M. Ottman, G.W. Wall., G. De Sanctis, J. Doltra, R. Grant, B. Kassie, A. Maiorano, J.E. Olesen, D. Ripoche, E. Eyshi Rezaei, M.A. Semenov, P. Stratonovitch, F. Ewert, 2017. Canopy temperature for simulation of heat stress in irrigated wheat in a semi-arid environment: A multi-model comparison. Field Crops Research 202, 21-35. DOI:10.1016/j.fcr.2015.10.009.

Gabaldón-Leal, C., H. Webber, M.E. Otegui, G.A. Slafer, R.A. Ordóñez, T. Gaiser, I.J. Lorite, M. Ruiz-Ramos, F. Ewert, 2016. Modelling the impact of heat stress on maize yield formation. Field Crops Research 198, 226-237. DOI:10.1016/j.fcr.2016.08.013.

Ruane, A.C., N.I. Hudson, S. Asseng, D. Camarrano, F. Ewert, P. Martre, K.J. Boote, P.J. Thorburn, P.K. Aggarwal, C. Angulo, B. Basso, P. Bertuzzi, C. Biernath, N. Brisson, A.J. Challinor, J. Doltra, S. Gayler, R. Goldberg, R.F. Grant, L. Heng, J. Hooker, L.A. Hunt, J. Ingwersen, R.C. Izaurralde, K.C. Kersebaum, S.N. Kumar, C. Müller, C. Nendel, G. O'Leary, J.E. Olesen, T.M. Osborne, T. Palosuo, E. Priesack, D. Ripoche, R.P. Rötter, M.A. Semenov, I. Shcherbak, P. Steduto, C.O. Stöckle, P. Stratonovitch, T. Streck, I. Supit, F. Tao, M. Travasso, K. Waha, D. Wallach, J.W. White, J. Wolf, 2016. Multi-wheat-model ensemble responses to interannual climate variability. Environmental Modelling & Software 81, 86-101. DOI:10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.03.008.

Salo, T.J., T. Palosuo, K.C. Kersebaum, C. Nendel, C. Angulo, F. Ewert, M. Bindi, P. Calanca, T. Klein, M. Moriondo, R. Ferrise, J.E. Olesen, R.H. Patil, F. Ruget, J. Takac, Pl. Hlavinka, M. Trnka, R.P. Rötter, 2016. Comparing the performance of 11 crop simulation models in predicting yield response to nitrogen fertilization. The Journal of Agricultural Science 154, 1218-1240. DOI:10.1017/S0021859615001124.

Van Bussel, L.G.J., F. Ewert, G. Zhao, H. Hoffmann, A. Enders, D. Wallach, S. Asseng, G.A. Baigorria, B. Basso, C. Biernath, D. Cammarano, J. Chryssanthacopoulos, J. Constantin, J. Elliott, M. Glotter, F. Heinlein, K.-C. Kersebaum, C. Klein, C. Nendel, E. Priesack, H. Raynal, C.C. Romero, R.P. Rötter, X. Specka, F. Tao, 2016. Spatial sampling of weather data for regional crop yield simulations. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 220, 101-115. DOI:10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.01.014.

Wallach, D., P. Thorburn, S. Asseng, A.J. Challinor, F. Ewert, J.W. Jones, R. Rötter, A. Ruane, 2016. Estimating model prediction error: Should you treat predictions as fixed or random?. Environmental Modelling & Software 84, 529-539. DOI:10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.07.010.

Webber, H., F. Ewert, B.A. Kimball, S. Siebert, J.W. White, G.W. Wall, M.J. Ottman, D.N.A. Trawally, T. Gaiser, 2016. Simulating canopy temperature for modelling heat stress in cereals. Environmental Modelling & Software 77, 143-155. DOI:10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.12.003

Webber, H., T. Gaiser, R. Oomen, E. Teixeira, G. Zhao, D. Wallach, A. Zimmermann, F. Ewert, 2016. Uncertainty in future irrigation water demand and risk of crop failure for maize in Europe. Environmental Research Letters 11, 074007. DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074007.

Zhao, G., H. Hoffmann, J. Yeluripati, S. Xenia, C. Nendel, E. Coucheney, M. Kuhnert, F. Tao, J. Constantin, H. Raynal, E. Teixeira, B. Grosz, L. Doro, R. Kiese, H. Eckersten, E. Haas, D. Cammarano, B. Kassie, M. Moriondo, G. Trombi, M. Bindi, C. Biernath, F. Heinlein, C. Klein, E. Priesack, E. Lewan, K.-C. Kersebaum, R. Rötter, P.P. Roggero, D. Wallach, S. Asseng, S. Siebert, T. Gaiser, F. Ewert, 2016. Evaluating the precision of eight spatial sampling schemes in estimating regional means of simulated yield for two crops. Environmental Modelling & Software 80, 100-112. DOI:10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.02.022.

Asseng, S., F. Ewert, P. Martre, R.P. Rotter, D.B. Lobell, D. Cammarano, B.A. Kimball, M.J. Ottman, G.W. Wall, J.W. White, M.P. Reynolds, P.D. Alderman, P.V.V. Prasad, P.K. Aggarwal, J. Anothai, B. Basso, C. Biernath, A.J. Challinor, G. De Sanctis, J. Doltra, E. Fereres, M. Garcia-Vila, S. Gayler, G. Hoogenboom, L.A. Hunt, R.C. Izaurralde, M. Jabloun, C.D. Jones, K.C. Kersebaum, A.K. Koehler, C. Muller, S. Naresh Kumar, C. Nendel, G. O/'Leary, J.E. Olesen, T. Palosuo, E. Priesack, E. Eyshi Rezaei, A.C. Ruane, M.A. Semenov, I. Shcherbak, C. Stockle, P. Stratonovitch, T. Streck, I. Supit, F. Tao, P.J. Thorburn, K. Waha, E. Wang, D. Wallach, J. Wolf, Z. Zhao, Y. Zhu, 2015. Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production. Nature Climate Change 5, 143-147. DOI:10.1038/nclimate2470.

Eyshi Rezaei, E., S. Siebert, F. Ewert, 2015. Impact of data resolution on heat and drought stress simulated for winter wheat in Germany. European Journal of Agronomy 65, 69-82. DOI:10.1016/j.eja.2015.02.003.

Eyshi Rezaei, E., H. Webber, T. Gaiser, J. Naab, F. Ewert, 2015. Heat stress in cereals: mechanisms and modeling. European Journal of Agronomy 64, 98-113. DOI:10.1016/j.eja.2014.10.003.

Hoffmann, H., G. Zhao, L.G.J. van Bussel, A. Enders, X. Specka, C. Sosa, J. Yeluripati, F. Tao, J. Constantin, H. Raynal, E. Teixeira, B. Grosz, L. Doro, Z. Zhao, E. Wang, C. Nendel, K.C. Kersebaum, E. Haas, R. Kiese, S. Klatt, H. Eckersten, E. Vanuytrecht, M. Kuhnert, E. Lewan, R. Rötter, P.P. Roggero, D. Wallach, D. Cammarano, S. Asseng, G. Krauss, S. Siebert, T. Gaiser, F. Ewert, 2015. Variability of effects of spatial climate data aggregation on regional yield simulation by crop models. Climate Research 65, 53-69. DOI:10.3354/cr01326.

Kollas, C., K.C. Kersebaum, C. Nendel, K. Manevski, C. Nüller, T. Palosuo, C.M. Armas-Herrera, N. Beaudoin, M. Bindi, M. Charfeddine, T. Conradt, J. Constantin, J. Eitzinger, F. Ewert, R. Ferrise, T. Gaiser, I.G. Cortazar-Atauri, L. Giglio, P. Hlavinka, H. Hoffmann, M.P. Hoffmann, M. Launay, R. Manderscheid, B. Mary, W. Mirschel, M. Moriondo, J.E. Olesen, I. Öztürk, A. Pacholski, D. Ripoche-Wachter, P.P. Roggero, S. Roncossek, R.P. Rötter, F. Ruget, B. Sharif, M. Trnka, D. Ventrella, K. Waha, M. Wegehenkel, H.J. Weigel, L. Wu, 2015. Crop rotation modelling - A European model intercomparison. European Journal of Agronomy 70, 98-111. DOI:10.1016/j.eja.2015.06.007.

Makowski, D., Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Bassu, S., Durand, J.L., Li, T., Martre, P., Adam, M., Aggarwal, P.K., Angulo, C., Baron, C., Basso, B., Bertuzzi, P., Biernath, C., Boogaard, H., Boote, K.J., Bouman, B., Bregaglio, S., Brisson, N., Buis, S., Cammarano, D., Challinor, A.J., Confalonieri, R., Conijn, J.G., Corbeels, M., Deryng, D., De Sanctis, G., Doltra, J., Fumoto, T., Gaydon, D., Gayler, S., Goldberg, R., Grant, R.F., Grassini, P., Hatfield, J.L., Hasegawa, T., Heng, L., Hoek, S., Hooker, J., Hunt, L.A., Ingwersen, J., Izaurralde, R.C., Jongschaap, R.E.E., Jones, J.W., Kemanian, R.A., Kersebaum, K.C., Kim, S.H., Lizaso, J., Marcaida, M., Müller, C., Nakagawa, H., Naresh Kumar, S., Nendel, C., O'Leary, G.J., Olesen, J.E., Oriol, P., Osborne, T.M., Palosuo, T., Pravia, M.V., Priesack, E., Ripoche, D., Rosenzweig, C., Ruane, A.C., Ruget, F., Sau, F., Semenov, M.A., Shcherbak, I., Singh, B., Singh, U., Soo, H.K., Steduto, P., Stöckle, C., Stratonovitch, P., Streck, T., Supit, I., Tang, L., Tao, F., Teixeira, E.I., Thorburn, P., Timlin, D., Travasso, M., Rötter, R.P., Waha, K., Wallach, D., White, J.W., Wilkens, P., Williams, J.R., Wolf, J., Yin, X., Yoshida, H., Zhang, Z., Zhu, Y., 2015. A statistical analysis of three ensembles of crop model responses to temperature and CO2 concentration. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 214-215, 483-493. DOI:10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.09.013.

Pirttioja, N., T.R. Carter, S. Fronzek, M. Bindi, H. Hoffmann, T. Palosuo, M. Ruiz-Ramos, F. Tao, M. Trnka, M. Acutis, S. Asseng, P. Baranowski, B. Basso, P. Bodin, S. Buis, D. Cammarano, P. Deligios, M.F. Destain, B. Dumont, F. Ewert, R. Ferrise, L. François, T. Gaiser, P. Hlavinka, I. Jacquemin, K.C. Kersebaum, C. Kollas, J. Krzyszczak, I.J. Lorite, J. Minet, M.I. Minguez, M. Montesino, M. Moriondo, C. Müller, C. Nendel, I. Öztürk, A. Perego, A. Rodríguez, A.C. Ruane, F. Ruget, M. Sanna, M.A. Semenov, C. Slawinski, P. Stratonovitch, I. Supit, K. Waha, E. Wang, L. Wu, Z. Zhao, R.P. Rötter, 2015. Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces. Climate Research 65, 87-105. DOI:10.3354/cr01322.

Van Bussel, L.G.J., E. Stehfest, S. Siebert, C. Müller, F. Ewert, 2015. Simulation of the phenological development of wheat and maize at the global scale. Global Ecology and Biogeography 24, 1018-1029. DOI:10.1111/geb.12351.

Webber, H., G. Zhao, J. Wolf, W. Britz, W. de Vries, T. Gaiser, H. Hoffmann, F. Ewert, 2015. Climate change impacts on European crop yields: do we need to consider nitrogen limitation? European Journal of Agronomy 71, 123–134. DOI:10.1016/j.eja.2015.09.002.

Zhao, G., H. Hoffmann, L.G.J. van Bussel, A. Enders, X. Specka, C. Sosa, J. Yeluripati, F. Tao, J. Constantin, H. Raynal, E. Teixeira, B. Grosz, L. Doro, Z. Zhao, C. Nendel, R. Kiese, H. Eckersten, E. Haas, E. Vanuytrecht, E. Wang, M. Kuhnert, G. Trombi, M. Moriondo, M. Bindi, E. Lewan, M. Bach, K.C. Kersebaum, R. Rötter, P.P. Roggero, D. Wallach, D. Cammarano, S. Asseng, G. Krauss, S. Siebert, T. Gaiser, F. Ewert, 2015. Effect of weather data aggregation on regional crop simulation for different crops, production conditions, and response variables. Climate Research 65, 141-157. DOI:10.3354/cr01301.

Zhao, G., S. Siebert, A. Enders, E. Eyshi Rezaei, C. Yan, F. Ewert, 2015. Demand for multi-scale weather data for regional crop modeling. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 200, 156-171, DOI:10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.09.026.

Zhao, G., H. Webber, H.  Hoffmann, J. Wolf, S. Siebert, F. Ewert, 2015. The implication of irrigation in climate change impact assessment: a European wide study. Global Change Biology 21, 4031-4048. DOI:10.1111/gcb.13008.

Angulo C., T. Gaiser, R.P. Rötter, C.D.  Børgesen, P. Hlavinka,  M. Trnka,  F. Ewert, 2014. ‘Fingerprints’ of four crop models as affected by soil input data aggregation. European Journal of Agronomy 61, 35-48. DOI:10.1016/j.eja.2014.07.005.

Challinor, A., P. Martre, S.  Asseng, P. Thornton, F. Ewert, 2014. Making the most of climate impacts ensembles. Nature Climate Change 4, 77-80. DOI:10.1038/nclimate2117.

Siebert, S., F. Ewert, E. Eyshi Rezaei, H. Kage, R. Graß, 2014. Impact of heat stress on crop yield—on the importance of considering canopy temperature. Environmental Research Letters 9, 044012. DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/044012.

Angulo, C. R. Rötter, M. Trnka, N. Pirttioja, T. Gaiser, P. Hlavinka, F. Ewert, 2013.  Characteristic fingerprints of crop model responses to weather input data  at different spatial resolutions. Europen Journal of Agronomy 49, 104-114. DOI:10.1016/j.eja.2013.04.003.

Angulo, C., R. Rötter, R. Lock, A. Enders, S. Fronzek, F. Ewert, 2013. Implication of crop model calibration strategies for assessing regional impacts of climate change in Europe. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 170, 32-46. DOI:10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.11.017.

Hoffmann, H., G. Zhao, L. van Bussel, A. Enders, X. Specka, C. Sosa, J. Yeluripati, F. Tao, J. Consantin, E. Teixeira, B. Grosz, L. Doro, C. Nendel, R. Kiese, H. Raynal, H. Eckersten, E. Haas, M. Kuhnert, E. Lewan, M. Bach, K. C. Kersebaum, P. Roggero;,R. Rötter, D. Wallach, G. Krauss, S. Siebert, T. Gaiser, E. Wang, Z. Zhao, F. Ewert, 2014. Effects of climate input data aggregation on modeling regional crop yields. FACCE MACSUR Mid-Term Scientific Conference ‘Achievements, Activities, Advancement’ April 1–3(+4), 2014 University of Sassari, Sardinia, Italy.

Zhao, G., H. Hoffmann, L. van Bussel, A. Enders, X. Specka, C. Sosa, J. Yeluripati, F. Tao, J. Consantin, E. Teixeira, B. Grosz, L. Doro, Z. Zhao, C. Nendel, H. Raynal, H. Eckersten, E. Haas, M. Kuhnert, E. Lewan, M. Bach, K. C. Kersebaum, P. Roggero, R. Rötter, D. Wallach, G. Krauss, S. Siebert, T. Gaiser, R. Kiese, E. Wang, F. Ewert, 2014. Weather data aggregation’s effects on simulation of cropping systems: a model, production system and crop comparison. FACCE MACSUR Mid-Term Scientific Conference ‘Achievements, Activities, Advancement’ April 1–3(+4), 2014 University of Sassari, Sardinia, Italy.

Angulo, C., T. Gaiser, R. Rötter, C. D. Børgesen, P. Hlavinka, M. Trnka, F. Ewert, 2014. Effect of soil input data resolution on regional crop yield simulations. FACCE MACSUR CropM International Symposium and Workshop: Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security. 10-12 February 2014, Oslo, Norway.

Hoffmann, H., G. Zhao, L. van Bussel, A. Enders, X. Specka, C. Sosa, J. Yeluripati, F. Tao, J. Constantin, E. Teixeira, B. Grosz, L. Doro, C. Nendel, R. Kiese, H. Raynal, H. Eckersten, E. Haas, M. Kuhnert, E. Lewan, M. Bach, K.-C. Kersebaum, R. Rötter, D. Wallach, T. Gaiser, F. Ewert, 2014. Effects of climate input data aggregation on modelling regional crop yields. FACCE MACSUR CropM International Symposium and Workshop: Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security. 10-12 February 2014, Oslo, Norway.

Klatt, S., E. Haas, H. Hoffmann, G. Zhao, L. van Bussel, A. Enders, T. Gaiser, F. Ewert, E. Teixeira, R. Kiese, L. Doro,  X. Specka, C.Nendel, K.-C. Kersebaum, C. Sosa, E. Lewan, H. Eckersten, S. Gebbert, R. Dechow, B. Grosz, M. Bach, J. Yeluripati, F. Tao, J. Constantin, H. Raynal, D. Wallach, M. Kuhnert, 2014. Responses of soil N2O emissions and nitrate leaching on climate input data aggregation: a biogeochemistry model ensemble study. FACCE MACSUR CropM International Symposium and Workshop: Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security. 10-12 February 2014, Oslo, Norway.

Martre, P., D. Wallach, S. Asseng, F. Ewert, C. Nendel, J. Jones, K. Boote, R. Rötter, A. Ruane, P. Thorburn, C. Rosenzweig, D. Cammarano, J. Hatfield, P. Aggarwal, C. Angulo, B. Basso, P. Bertuzzi, C. Biernath, N. Brisson, A. Challinor, J. Doltra, S. Gayler, R. Goldberg, R. Grant, L. Heng, J. Hooker, L. Hunt, J. Ingwersen, R. Izaurralde, K. Kersebaum, C. Müller, S. Kumar, G. O’Leary, J. Olesen, T. Osborne, T. Palosuo, E. Priesack, D. Ripoche, M. Semenov, I. Shcherbak, P. Steduto, C. Stöckle, P. Stratonovitch, T. Streck, I. Supit, F. Tao, M. Travasso, K. Waha, J. White, J. Wolf, 2014. Error and uncertainty of wheat multimodel ensemble projections. FACCE MACSUR CropM International Symposium and Workshop: Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security. 10-12 February 2014, Oslo, Norway.

Pirttioja, N., S. Fronzek, M. Bindi, T. Carter, H. Hoffmann, T. Palosuo, M. Ruiz-Ramos, M. Trnka, M. Acutis, S. Asseng, P. Baranowski, B. Basso, P. Bodin, S. Buis, D. Cammarano, P. Deligios, M.-F. Destain, L. Doro, B. Dumont, F. Ewert, R. Ferrise, L. François, T. Gaiser, P. Hlavinka, C. Kersebaum, C. Kollas, J. Krzyszczak, I. L. Torres, J. Minet, M. I. Minguez, M. Montesino, M. Moriondo, C. Nendel, I. Öztürk, A. Perego, F. Ruget, A. Rodríguez, M. Sanna, M. Semenov, C. Slawinski, P. Stratonovitch, I. Supit, F. Tao, L. Wu, R. Rötter, 2014. Examining wheat yield sensitivity to temperature and precipitation changes for a large ensemble of crop models using impact response surfaces. FACCE MACSUR CropM International Symposium and Workshop: Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security. 10-12 February 2014, Oslo, Norway.

Zhao, G., H. Hoffmann, L. van Bussel, A. Enders, X. Specka, C. Sosa, J. Yeluripati, F. Tao, J. Constantin, E. Teixeira, L. Doro, C. Nendel, R. Kiese, H. Raynal, H. Eckersten, E. Haas, M. Kuhnert, E. Lewan, M. Bach, K.-C. Kersebaum, R. Rötter, D. Wallach, T. Gaiser, F. Ewert, 2014. Responses of crop’s water use efficiency to weather data aggregation: a crop model ensemble study. FACCE MACSUR CropM International Symposium and Workshop: Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security. 10-12 February 2014, Oslo, Norway.

Rötter, R., F. Ewert, T. Palosuo, M. Bindi, K.C. Kersebaum, J.E. Olesen, M. Trnka, M.K. van Ittersum, S. Janssen, M. Rivington, M. Semenov, D. Wallach, J.R. Porter, D. Stewart, J. Verhagen, C. Angulo, T. Gaiser, C. Nendel, P. Martre, A. de Wit, 2013. Challenges for agro-ecosystem modelling in climate change risk assessment for major European crops and farming systems. Proceedings of IMPACTS WORLD 2013 - International Conference on Climate Change Effects, May 27 - 30, Potsdam, Germany, 555-564.

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