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Article in Nature Climate Change

Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

Grid-based and point-base crop models as well as statistical regressions were employed to assess uncertainties in the predicted impact of temperature change on wheat production caused by the use of different methods. There was a strong similarity in the estimated temperature impact on wheat yields projected by different methods. The global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4% per 1 °C increase in global mean temperature the different methods. The effect of increase in global mean temperature on wheat yield was relatively similar for major wheat-producing countries such as China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. The study was recently published in Nature Climate Change.

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